Sunday, January 31, 2010

Russell 2000 Weekly Model

Good night!

This weekend I want to show you the Russel 2000's ETF followers, because they have just thrown new signals.
The first one is the IWM ETF. This is a tracker of the Russel 2000 index:


This is the second sell signal after March/09 and the other indicators are with very similar values as the
first one. So, it's not quite clear the way this is gonna take in the next weeks.

Now see the leveraged ETF tracker (TNA):



TNA has also thrown a sell signal. Based on the stochastic oscillator and in the MACD I think that this is reliable signal. The only bull signal I see is the divergence of the prices with their volume. However, this divergence can co-exist several weeks with the prices sinking. What this might tell us right now is that maybe this won't be more than a correction in the prices..

Finally, the TZA is the leveraged reverse cousin:


Looking at the TZA follower I see that, altought the trackers have already thrown sell signals, the reverse one hasn't! This might be an important thing to consider before shorting the Russell 2000 (or going long in the TZA ETF). The stochastic oscillator is under a buy signal, confirmed by the MACD. However, since March/09 the TZA didn't throw any buy call when the IWM and TNA thrown a sell and the result was that those sells only lasted a couple of weeks. So, I think it's better to "hold your horses" and wait for a proper buy signal in the weekly TZA model before going long. That's what I will do for sure!

Trade safely,
JAPO.

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