My trend follower's performance on the S&P in the weekly and monthly charts is impressive,
so I take this sell signal as very reliable.
But first let's take a look at what happenned during the 2003 bull. Before claiming for a resume of
the bear market, I think it's safer and wiser to wait for more proof (and that proof is a sell in my
monthly trend follower!). So, look at the first 2003's bull weekly sell signal (as the one we got this week):
One can see that signal in March/2004 and, as today's, there was a sell signal in
the stochastics oscillator and the MACD divergence were dangerously approaching zero and going negative. But, that didn't mean the resume of the 2000's bear market! And by that time the Elliot guys were also claiming for a new cathastrophic down wave...right now I'm skeptical about the P3 start and
waiting for that confirmation.
Well...let's see the monthly performance of the trend follower on the S&P:
The result is that starting with $50.000 today the cash value is $2.375.000.
This is achieved trading without short calls and with no money management
besides profit reinvestment. I'm also considering $13 per trade.
Trade safely,
JAPO.
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