Thursday, April 21, 2011

The silver linning carries on

Good night.

Silver is having an impressive move right now towards the $50 level. 

Gold broke above an inverted H&S neckline and is moving to the $1600 level. This may be a major top for the next months. 

My guess is that silver will follow this move on gold and will reach the $50 level sooner than one would expect last year.

Sunday, February 13, 2011

Silver follow up

After last Silver's buy trigger in our trend follower, check out how this precious metal behave:

Short term speaking, silver is correcting from last push up (note how the bollinger band is acting here). The correction may continue during this week, so be careful and use our stop trigger at 28,76.

As you may see in the picture above, the medium term chart has a trend follow model back in buy mode. However, the negative divergence of prices with volume is not a good sign. Let's take extra care here looking for the 27,05 value as a worst case scenario stop trigger.

Best to your trading,

Saturday, January 29, 2011

New short term trend?

After the SELL signal in the beginning of 2011, Silver's move from yesterday issued a new BUY trigger in my system:

This new trigger arose after a very oversold condition and after option's expiration day. I don't know yet wether this is the confirmation for the resuming of the medium term uptrend or not. Let's play it though.

Let me show you also the medium (weekly) and long (monthly) term charts for SLV for some curious observations:

.Weekly Chart:

The weekly model is in SELL mode for the second week and its buy trigger is currently set at 28.91. This charts shows clearly that the uptrend from August/2010 is broken and that the last weeks has been in correction mode. Support for this move may rely on the middle line of the bollinger band (as it happens very often in a lot of charts).

The breakout of the 28.91 level will mark for sure the resume of the bull market in silver, so be around the corner, because this may be a very good dip buying!

.Monthly Chart:

This is all the history the SLV chart has to tell you. You can clearly see that the long term trend follower is still in buy mode. Please keep the 25.525 level close to you as a stop loss level for an eventual bear market.

This chart is a little bit scary as it shows how overbought silver is right now! Also, this month gave us a candle that broke through the upper bollinger band and ended below that line. The last time this happenned was back in 2008!!! If february's bar doesn't take SLV back to upper bollinger band line, then the storm is coming!

Sunday, January 9, 2011

Silver correcting


Is silver correcting? Is silver in a new downtrend? Where is silver??

I don't you know? I just don't trend follower is clear about that:

The new buy trigger for SLV ETF is currently set at 29.185.

Technically, silver is in oversold state, with RSI below 30, stochastic oscillator under 20.

One bad thing happenned this week, with silver breaking down the uptrend line it's been developing after August/2010. If this marks a new downtrend or is just a minor correction, only time can tell.

Current support for this down leg is in the 27.30 price level, but I'm not sure if it works, because there are lots os still openned gaps.

Best to your trading,

Saturday, January 1, 2011

Silver recap

Good night,

First of all let me wish you all a great new year, plenty of health and, hopefully, wealth as well.

Even though I have no clear idea about the fundamentals (if any) driving the current silver market, let me show you the monthly SLV chart and do some technical analysis on it:

This chart provides us a long term watch over silver. The first thing it comes to my eyes is the long term over-bought state of silver. RSI is sitting at over 95, the stochastic oscillator is also above 90. There's still no divergence in the indicators which is why this is a very strong move. Only volume diminished a little bit in December, but this is quite normal.

This condition arose in sequence of the current strong  uptrend that started back in August/2010 aroud the 18.0 level. It has been 4 months and 70% valuation on silver price since then, making us all plenty of joy.

Silver ended 2010 making a new year high (still not a new all time high, but approaching...) at 30.25 (SLV price - more or less 31 in actual silver price).

Let's see what 2011 will bring to us that are trading this market.
Nice trades!

Thursday, December 30, 2010

New SLV high

Good night

Silver hit today a new year high at 30.08 (SLV value). This shows that a very strong uptrend is underway, in spite of the close in red at 29.76. Let's "look at the trailer":

Trend follower trigger is at 29.18, so be careful. MACD turned into positive ground today and this is an important sign. I just don't like the close below the upper bollinger band line. Short term momentum is also a little bit overbought.

You have a nice 2011!