Saturday, February 27, 2010

Metal Update :P

Good night,

Let me update my current favourite metal...Silver!

I will start with the 30 minute chart, and then comment the daily chart. Finally, I will show you the weekly chart and maybe the month if I'm in the mood. In both daily and weekly charts I keep on using the optimized trend follower parameters.

1. 30 minute chart

Here is a picture of the 30-minute chart from the Google Finance website:

As I've said in the last update (, the SLV was developing a nice support price in the 15.49 level. This was written by Tuesday's close and, as you can check in this chart, in wednesday that level hold any attempt to drop down the SLV. By Wednesday's close I was relying pretty much on the 15.49 level in order to sell the SLV if the price went down that level.

Then, in Thursday's open, the SLV openned with a gap below the 15.49. However, we got lucky and after the price came in above the lower bollinger band (that's a buy signal!), it gained more than 0.6 points in two days only.

Now, the price is topping and a small (?) correction may be in place, at least until the lower bollinger band of this chart (16.0), but the daily chart may have more intell on this issue!

2. Daily chart

Here is the picture with the daily chart and my optimized trend follower feature:

My trend follower status right now is still under a buy signal and it's threshold is about 15.6; see the last two candles...the first one is somehow a very bullish engulfing bar and the last one is another very bullish one in this context, because it's high is 16.22 and this is above the first resistance (16.20). Yes...I know....we need a bigger difference in order to aceept the 16.22 high as if it had passed the 16.20 previous resistance....

So, the resistances the SLV has to pass now are the 16.20 and the 16.47. As a dummy analyst, I would say that, if the SLV goes above the 16.50 level, new highs can be made in the medium term...some weeks further than now. Supporting any attempt to drop the SLV we have the 15.49 level in a first stage and then the 15.0 boundary. Bellow this one sell it!

Technically and in the line with my previous analysis in the blog, the SLV is in bull mode in the daily chart. The only concern here is the lower volume.

3. Weekly chart


The weekly chart is still bearish right now. My trend follower threshold here is 16.58 (vs 16.53 in the daily chart) and the next week may give us a new buy signal, if the daily chart manages to keep on bullish mode. However, I wouldn't be honest if I wouldn't express here my bearish view in this last chart.

The weekly indicators are still weak:

 .MACD histogram is still red, but inverting for the last 3 weeks: bearish/bullish
 .RSI is still below 50 and showing no positive divergences yet: bearish
 .Stochastic Osc: endend this week with a (small) sell cross: bearish
 .Volume: falling with rising prices: bearish
.BB: prices are rising from a buy call, since they rised above the lower bollinger band: bullish
 .Last candle is a "hammered green doji". Hammers are bullish, but the doji part of it shows some indecision. If had only this thing to play with, I guess I would consider this bullish.

Let me say something about the stochastic oscillator. I think this is one of the best indicators for traders who try to follow swings and trends. However, the problem is that many platforms use different formulas for its calculation and it get's tricky to trade with it sometimes. My point is that, although in this platform the stochastic issued a sell cross, in and others I see a very bullish cross in the weekly chart of SLV.

Don't forget that Silver and Gold are very related to the Dollar in a reverse proportion. They act as a shelter for Dollar devaluation. So, in order for us to keep seeing a bullish undertone in these metals, the Dollar must continue its devaluation. In the UUP chart, my trend follower is in bull mode, both in the daily and the weekly chart. However, I think a top in both is being formed.

Trade safely.

Tuesday, February 23, 2010


Good night.

Take a look at this 60 minute chart:


As I told you yesterday, silver was showing some weakness and behaving like a top (major or minor...I don't care...the follower will track in the right direction).

Today has been a tough day for silver an that evidence is clear on the 60-minute chart. For 3 times it has hit the 15.49 boudary. This may be becoming a strong resistance for silver, as it is also the breakout value of 16 of February! If silver is yet in bull mode, this value will hold every down move from here. However, if the 15.49 value gets broken this week...well...silver gets in trouble!

Let me check the technicals in the chart in order to realise what may be the most likely and reliable direction for tomorrow in silver:

1. MACD: last 2 divergence bars are bullish
2. RSI: 23...below 30 (bearish), but oversold. A break on the upside from 30 would be bullish, however needs confirmation, because there's still no positive divergence
3. Stochastic Osc: oversold below 20, already with bullish cross...however needs to rise over 20 to be really   bullish!
4. BB: sideways from lower bollinger band, needing an uptrend to confirm the buy signal

I'm looking very carefully for this week's evolution in silver...this may be the most important week in silver for 2010 and mark very clearly the next medium/long trend...if resumes the uptrend or confirms the start of a downtrend.

Trade safely,

Monday, February 22, 2010


Good night,

Let me do some update here. This time I only intend to show some charts with my follower current state and save the words to other time. I also tell the medium (weekly) and short (daily) term look from my follower.

1. Silver (SLV) - Optimized trend following model

Today's close: red doji bar, showing some weakness
Short term: uptrending, but maybe topping
Medium term: downtrending (correcting?)

2. S&P500 - Default trend following model

Today's close: doji bar with huge volume! Must mean something...

Short term: uptrending, but maybe topping

Medium term: downtrending, but almost turning up

3. Russel 2000 (IWM ETF) - Default trend following model

Today's close: doji bar...indecision...

Short term: clear uptrend in the way

Medium term: almost turning up again

4. Portugal (PSI20) - Default trend following model

Today's close: doji bar in a resistance zone

Short term: follower is green, consolidating...

Medium term: downtrending


5. India (MSCI INR) - Default trend following model

Today's close: red bar

Short term: uptrending, but looks like a top

Medium term: follower is red, but not that far from turning green again

6. Brazil (EWZ ETF) - Default trend following model

Today's close: looks like a shy bearish engulfing ba
Short term: uptrending

Medium term: follower is still red, but not that far from turning green again


Never trade safely!

Wednesday, February 17, 2010


Good night!

In the past few days I've been trying to optimize my trend follower to some charts I'm following. SLV is the first one optimized and running. Basically, I took my follower algorithm and optimized the two main parameters for the backtest done in the chart's history.

Why optimizing?

I think that each equity has its intrinsic characteristics and dynamics. So, if instead of having only one trading system for all equities, I had a bunch of customized followers?
I'm not quite sure yet if this assumption is true or just a phalacy, but I am testing it. The first chart I choosed to show you is the SLV (silver ETF).

Please see.the SLV daily chart with default follower parameters:


Take a look at the backtest results. It starts in 1 of May of 2006 and ends with today' s close. The initial capital is 50.000€ and considers 13€ of trading costs in each operation. Regarding capital management there isn't any type of stop loss, but only profit reinvesment. I'm using both long and short positions (even with  long positions only, the results are quite good). The capital reached by today is 72.114€ or 44.23% profit.

Now, the chart with the optimized follower for the SLV chart:

With follower's optimization the result is by far profitable: 187.5% vs 44.23%.

This is an indication that optimization may be a very helpful tool. I have some faith here for the SLV chart, because the optimized parameters are pretty close to the default ones I'm using in the other charts. Only time will tell if this the way to trade...

As safely!

Thursday, February 11, 2010

Russell 2000 :: IWM

The IWM ETF that follows the Russell 2000 index ended today with a new buy signal:

Did the correction end? Hummm....I'm not quite sure. Besides the new buy signal in the daily chart, let's not forget the sell in the weekly one! Another reason to be affraid of is that today's close also brought a 20-day MA cross under the 50-day MA. The last time this happenned was in Nov/2009 and that made sure that the correction wasn't finnished. However, today's bar is really bullish and the market is trying hard to break the correction rather sooner than later...

Other ETFs ended today under a buy signal (e.g.: EWZ and TNA).
But most impressive is that many short ETFs ended in a sell. These may well be all false sell triggers if tomorrow isn't a good day for the bulls.

Trade safely,

Gold (GLD)

Good night folks!

Let me show you how GLD is trying again to start a new uptrend.
First of all, the daily chart:


This isn't the greatest daily chart on Earth. However, today's candle was a very bullish one, triggering my trend follower into a new buy signal. Let's not get too excited here, because last 29 Jan and 1 Feb candles' pattern is very similar to today's and yesterday's candles. There was too a (fake) buy signal by that time!

Today the price ended just below the 20 day MA and it will have to do a lot more than that in order to start a new uptrend. 

Now, the weekly chart:

I should only show you the weekly chart tomorrow, but let me do some futurism here. The way I see it, the weekly chart is showing will to turn the trend to the upside. This is true because the stochastic oscillator is trying to end the week in a buy and this is a very trustable signal. On the other hand,  this week's price is somehow looking like a bullish engulfing bar...let's wait for tomorrow's close in order to check those indicators again.

Trade safely,

Wednesday, February 10, 2010

PSI20: Daily buy signal

My trend follower issued today a new buy signal in the portuguese PSI20 index.

See the picture:

As you can check, the follower ended today with a buy opportunity.
Technically speaking, I see the shy-rising volume, the RSI with a cross over the 30 boundary and the stochastic oscillator in a daily buy zone. The MACD histogram is too rising, after inverting its trend two days ago. These are all buy supports.
On the sell package, I see the late MA20 cross under the MA50 and my weekly trend follower still being under sell pressure (a weekly buy will be issued with a price over more or less 8050.

To conclude, all I can say is that my trend follower has very good results in the backtest of the PSI20 index, so I think this can be a turning point. Howver, let's play the safe side while the S&P is still on a sell!

Trade safely,

Monday, February 8, 2010

This isn't either good or stinks!

Good night folks!

This week I've been away from my blog, but tonight I will show you some charts and comment their state along with my trend follower. Let me start by the portuguese PSI20, which suffered a lot during this week, after the bad news from the rating agency, saying that Portugal is in high debt risk, along with Greece and Spain. Let me congratulate our politician class and their outstanding expertise!

 After my trend follower issued a sell signal by 14 January, the PSI20 has dropped a long way and is currently below its 200-day MA! Many people consider this boundary as the bull/bear "water mark". So, right now, the PSI20 is already in bear market again. This is very bad news for us. Fortunately, my follower works really nice here :)

Now, let me move on to the S&P index:

The S&P is in a sell since 21 January and there was yet no new buy signal. What can I say here? follower did managed ok again providing an early and reliable sell signal. Right now the indicators I follow are
quite oversold and even showing some positive divergences in the daily chart. So maybe we are approaching a new buy signal. This one may only correct the recent downtrend or be something more. Let's wait to see and pray that my trend follower detects all nice tradable trends :P

Regarding India, the INR ETF ended this week in a (weekly) sell, after the daily sell by 4th February:

This is the third weekly sell after the famous March lows. The first one lasted 2 weeks; the second one only one week. Let's see if this one will hold for this week or turn right now into a new refreshed buy.

That's all for tonight.
Trade safely.

Monday, February 1, 2010

Personal stuff

Hi. I've been only showing some charts here in my blog. I think it's time to let you know something
more about myself.

Today I wanna tell you about my favourite music band. They are the only...the ones...Dream Theater.
For you that don't know them, they are a progressive metal band and are composed by 5 great musicians...
...each of them is one of the best in the world playing what they play. You can find lots of info on them on the
following websites:


One of my favourite songs (a special call for the ending of the second part and the start of the third one...that solo it's amazing!!!! :D)

A Change of Seasons...30 minutes of all that's great on planet Earth!


New signals

Hello people.

Llet me show you today's BUY signal on the Indian MSCI ETF (INR). This is one of my favourite
ETFs, because several Ellioticians claim that India is starting a major bull market.

Besides the follower buy signal, I think this one is confirmed by the stochastic oscillator and the
MACD divergence reversal bars as well. The RSI also rose today, so no negatice divergence here.
The only problem may be the volume decrease (negative divergence with volume). The weekly
model is still in a sell; however, the current bar isn't very far away from my trend follower, so this week
a weekly buy may also be seen. That would provide a nice and reliable long call.

Besides the INR, my screener also found that the GLD ETF (gold tracker) issued a buy call in today's close:

Maybe a short term bottom has been found in gold. Let's wait and see.
This week's close will be very important for it.

Silver's leveraged reverse ETF ZSL ended today also on a sell from my follower.

My screener is only being applied to my personal stock list. If you want
to know the state of my trend follower to any other equity, don't hesitate
and ask me.

Trade safely.