These are dificult times in the world (of course, not for our so beloved politicians and their big lobbies...).
While the world sentiment is currently very bullish (over 80%), almost all Elliot Wave followers claim for a big cathastrophic wave that will bring the S&P500 towards the 300 zone (not only the S&P, but the stock market in general...for me decoupling is a myth if the US guys go to the floor!...let's wait and see. Personally, I don't find fundamentals in the economy that support a new refreshed bull market. Mainly because the unemplyement rate all over the world is very large! Twice that of 2003!
Now let's see the chart:
Let me start by saying that, right now, besides being a bear fundamentally, when I see this chart, I'm a bull technically. This chart allow us to see the following regarding current date:
.RSI over 50 (this has been a very bullish sign)
.MACD is still very bullish having no reversal values so far since March/2009
.Volume doesn't look that bad
.Stochastics oscillator is the overbought zone, but still with no sell signal (here we have to ignore the last bar
because it belongs to the current month...).
.My trend follower is still rising, being the first sell zone near the 1060 level
.The only bear signal I see is the linear regression that follows the monthly candles, because it's showing
some kind of exhaustion in the prices.
Checking this conclusions against the 2003 bear/bull reversal, I would say that, technically, the S&P is kicking bears' ass, although revealing some weakness already.
The weekly chart is better showing the current exhaustion, so I guess a big correction (at leat) has it's time schedulled to start in very few weeks. If it will lead to the so-called cathastrophic wave, is too early to say.
Regards.
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