Silver

Good night.

Take a look at this 60 minute chart:

 

As I told you yesterday, silver was showing some weakness and behaving like a top (major or minor...I don't care...the follower will track in the right direction).

Today has been a tough day for silver an that evidence is clear on the 60-minute chart. For 3 times it has hit the 15.49 boudary. This may be becoming a strong resistance for silver, as it is also the breakout value of 16 of February! If silver is yet in bull mode, this value will hold every down move from here. However, if the 15.49 value gets broken this week...well...silver gets in trouble!

Let me check the technicals in the chart in order to realise what may be the most likely and reliable direction for tomorrow in silver:

1. MACD: last 2 divergence bars are bullish

2. RSI: 23...below 30 (bearish), but oversold. A break on the upside from 30 would be bullish, however needs confirmation, because there's still no positive divergence

3. Stochastic Osc: oversold below 20, already with bullish cross...however needs to rise over 20 to be really   bullish!

4. BB: sideways from lower bollinger band, needing an uptrend to confirm the buy signal

I'm looking very carefully for this week's evolution in silver...this may be the most important week in silver for 2010 and mark very clearly the next medium/long trend...if resumes the uptrend or confirms the start of a downtrend.

Trade safely,

JAPO.