Saturday, January 29, 2011

New short term trend?

After the SELL signal in the beginning of 2011, Silver's move from yesterday issued a new BUY trigger in my system:

This new trigger arose after a very oversold condition and after option's expiration day. I don't know yet wether this is the confirmation for the resuming of the medium term uptrend or not. Let's play it though.

Let me show you also the medium (weekly) and long (monthly) term charts for SLV for some curious observations:

.Weekly Chart:

The weekly model is in SELL mode for the second week and its buy trigger is currently set at 28.91. This charts shows clearly that the uptrend from August/2010 is broken and that the last weeks has been in correction mode. Support for this move may rely on the middle line of the bollinger band (as it happens very often in a lot of charts).

The breakout of the 28.91 level will mark for sure the resume of the bull market in silver, so be around the corner, because this may be a very good dip buying!

.Monthly Chart:

This is all the history the SLV chart has to tell you. You can clearly see that the long term trend follower is still in buy mode. Please keep the 25.525 level close to you as a stop loss level for an eventual bear market.

This chart is a little bit scary as it shows how overbought silver is right now! Also, this month gave us a candle that broke through the upper bollinger band and ended below that line. The last time this happenned was back in 2008!!! If february's bar doesn't take SLV back to upper bollinger band line, then the storm is coming!

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