Sunday, March 21, 2010

Time to short silver?

Hi,

See the new short signal my trend follower issued at this friday's close:


As you can see, now the trend follower is sit at the 17.24 level, after a 2.52% drop in the SLV price last friday. The last buy call was made at the 15.00 level and the sell was at 16.65, which represents a 11% profit in 26 trading days.

Checking the other indicators and some rudimentary Elliot Wave count, I would say silver will drop a little bit before resuming the uptrend. There is a little negative divergence in the RSI and the MACD doesn't look good either, because it's hystogram is almost negative. My expectation is that silver will correct and will find support at 16.47 or 16.20 at the most. These are the levels I'll be monitoring during this week. A drop below 16.20 will be very bearish for me! Also notice the two trend lines in the chart and the prices reaching the apex...

The first sign of an hypothetic resume of the uptrend will be issued by a buy cross in the stochastic oscillator and then confirmed by my trend follower.

Just to finnish, notice how my sight right now is still bullish for silver but, in spite of that, I am following my system! I could "hold the horses" and don't sell the SLV right now. However, if I'm playing with a backtested system, I must follow it! It wouldn't make any sense to be showing you here my system and don't use it. As someone wrote in his blog, "you don't need to understand electricity to use it...you just use it!". This is exactly the way to deal with a trend follower.

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