Market Update (SLV, INR, PSI20)

Good night!

The market today was very interesting. Generally speaking was a fine day for most markets...
Let me show my trend follower status for the SLV, INR and PSI20 chart.

1) Silver (SLV)

SLV had a nice breakthrought today, as it broke a strong resistance that was formed around the "psychologic" 18.0 level. However, nothing is already settled here, but a nice move had been made for sure! Today's volume was nice and seems to be no divergence in the RSI indicator. The stochastic oscillator is in buy mode too. The MACD grew and is almost green. In the walls of worry I see the prices touching the upper bollinger band and I'm watching how the SLV will perform until the 12th of May (there is a cross that day from two of my chart lines - call me crazy :P).

My trend follower is right now in the 17.59 level for a new sell signal.


2) India (INR)

India is my fetish market and I'm very confident that I'll be very happy in the near future with my longs!

My trend follower here is in the 12.36 level and the INR is at 12.23, so a new buy call my happen very soon. Regarding the daily indicators I see no problems for the longs and new highs are very likely.

3) PSI20

Our portuguese index has been smashed by traders in the last sessions, after the Standard and Poors rating agency dropped our rate. Just check how my trend follower caught that down move!!! It's amazing its performance :)
I'm writing today about it because, in spite of my trend follower is still in sell mode, I see nothing more than 3 clear signals for a buy call! The RSI climbed above the 30 level, the stochastic oscillator is now in buy mode and, more interestingly, there is a buy signal from the lower bollinger band! These are very reliable signals and I see no other option for the PSI20 than a short term very profitable trade!


Play your cards....I'm plying mine!

PSI20: Daily buy signal

My trend follower issued today a new buy signal in the portuguese PSI20 index.

See the picture:

As you can check, the follower ended today with a buy opportunity.
Technically speaking, I see the shy-rising volume, the RSI with a cross over the 30 boundary and the stochastic oscillator in a daily buy zone. The MACD histogram is too rising, after inverting its trend two days ago. These are all buy supports.
On the sell package, I see the late MA20 cross under the MA50 and my weekly trend follower still being under sell pressure (a weekly buy will be issued with a price over more or less 8050.

To conclude, all I can say is that my trend follower has very good results in the backtest of the PSI20 index, so I think this can be a turning point. Howver, let's play the safe side while the S&P is still on a sell!

Trade safely,
JAPO.

This isn't either good or bad....it stinks!

Good night folks!

This week I've been away from my blog, but tonight I will show you some charts and comment their state along with my trend follower. Let me start by the portuguese PSI20, which suffered a lot during this week, after the bad news from the rating agency, saying that Portugal is in high debt risk, along with Greece and Spain. Let me congratulate our politician class and their outstanding expertise!

 After my trend follower issued a sell signal by 14 January, the PSI20 has dropped a long way and is currently below its 200-day MA! Many people consider this boundary as the bull/bear "water mark". So, right now, the PSI20 is already in bear market again. This is very bad news for us. Fortunately, my follower works really nice here :)

Now, let me move on to the S&P index:

The S&P is in a sell since 21 January and there was yet no new buy signal. What can I say here? Well...my follower did managed ok again providing an early and reliable sell signal. Right now the indicators I follow are
quite oversold and even showing some positive divergences in the daily chart. So maybe we are approaching a new buy signal. This one may only correct the recent downtrend or be something more. Let's wait to see and pray that my trend follower detects all nice tradable trends :P


Regarding India, the INR ETF ended this week in a (weekly) sell, after the daily sell by 4th February:

This is the third weekly sell after the famous March lows. The first one lasted 2 weeks; the second one only one week. Let's see if this one will hold for this week or turn right now into a new refreshed buy.

That's all for tonight.
Trade safely.

And when it "fails"...

Hi,

Tonight I wanna show you my trend follower applyed to the PSI20(weekly).

Recall my last post about the PSI20 when the follower was throwing a buy signal (http://mytrendfollower.blogspot.com/2010/01/psi20-weeklydaily.html). I wrote this:

"I'm showing you this right now because last week the MTF provided a new buy signal. However, from a technical standpoint I don't think things are already settled. An this is mainly because the MACD divergence  is still negative (but growing) and the stochastic oscillator ended this week in a sell. A conservative investor  should hold some more time to buy."

This week ended proving me right. Although the follower throwed a buy signal, it ended this week throwing a sell signal! This trend follower is very nice in a way that provides traders some "intrinsic stop loss" mechanism.

More important than knowing when to buy, a trader must know better when to cut the losses. Before entering any trade one must be prepared to accept some maximum level of loss and follow religiously that level
in case the price goes under it.

Trade safely....always!

PSI20 Weekly/Daily

Hello fellows!

As you may know I'm from Portugal and our stock market index is called PSI20. I never traded any stock from this index and I don't know any ETF that tracks in any way our so beloved PSI20...it's pitty...

Let me show you the weekly chart (to the monthy one there's nothing to say...yet)

In the top of the chart you can see the performance of my trend follower (MTF). Notice how it handled
the 2008's bear market! Ohhhh if only I had this follower already developed by then....it would have saved me from some nightmares :)

I'm showing you this right now because last week the MTF provided a new buy signal. However, from a
technical standpoint I don't think things are already settled. An this is mainly because the MACD divergence
is still negative (but growing) and the stochastic oscillator ended this week in a sell. A conservative investor
should hold some more time to buy. Maybe buy if the daily chart is under a buy signal:

As you can see, the daily chart is still under a sell signal and there's some evidence that this one may
be here for some days. The MACD is curling under it's signal and the stochastics is on a sell. In October/09
happenned something similar as one can check.

So, what does this tell us? This tells us not to trust the last buy signal in the weekly chart. At least not right now! The MTF in the weekly chart has been providing an impressive performance, but the timming to buy
a weekly signal must be always checked against the respective daily chart. This is very important in order
to get the most out of a long trade.

Just for the fun, take a look at the performance of the MTF in the weekly chart:

This is a 122% return since March/1998 (more or less 10% profit per year) and being only 53% of time in the market.
If you pay attention this is a very good profit rate, because since 1998 two bear markets were in place and we still didn't see new highs since the 2000's top.

Trade safely,
Regards.