The silver linning carries on

Good night.

Silver is having an impressive move right now towards the $50 level. 

Gold broke above an inverted H&S neckline and is moving to the $1600 level. This may be a major top for the next months. 

My guess is that silver will follow this move on gold and will reach the $50 level sooner than one would expect last year.

A silver linning

Words for what?

Silver follow up

After last Silver's buy trigger in our trend follower, check out how this precious metal behave:

Short term speaking, silver is correcting from last push up (note how the bollinger band is acting here). The correction may continue during this week, so be careful and use our stop trigger at 28,76.

As you may see in the picture above, the medium term chart has a trend follow model back in buy mode. However, the negative divergence of prices with volume is not a good sign. Let's take extra care here looking for the 27,05 value as a worst case scenario stop trigger.

Best to your trading,
JAPO.

New short term trend?

After the SELL signal in the beginning of 2011, Silver's move from yesterday issued a new BUY trigger in my system:

This new trigger arose after a very oversold condition and after option's expiration day. I don't know yet wether this is the confirmation for the resuming of the medium term uptrend or not. Let's play it though.

Let me show you also the medium (weekly) and long (monthly) term charts for SLV for some curious observations:

.Weekly Chart:

The weekly model is in SELL mode for the second week and its buy trigger is currently set at 28.91. This charts shows clearly that the uptrend from August/2010 is broken and that the last weeks has been in correction mode. Support for this move may rely on the middle line of the bollinger band (as it happens very often in a lot of charts).

The breakout of the 28.91 level will mark for sure the resume of the bull market in silver, so be around the corner, because this may be a very good dip buying!


.Monthly Chart:

This is all the history the SLV chart has to tell you. You can clearly see that the long term trend follower is still in buy mode. Please keep the 25.525 level close to you as a stop loss level for an eventual bear market.

This chart is a little bit scary as it shows how overbought silver is right now! Also, this month gave us a candle that broke through the upper bollinger band and ended below that line. The last time this happenned was back in 2008!!! If february's bar doesn't take SLV back to upper bollinger band line, then the storm is coming!

Silver correcting

Hi,

Is silver correcting? Is silver in a new downtrend? Where is silver??

I don't know...do you know? I just don't care...my trend follower is clear about that:

The new buy trigger for SLV ETF is currently set at 29.185.

Technically, silver is in oversold state, with RSI below 30, stochastic oscillator under 20.

One bad thing happenned this week, with silver breaking down the uptrend line it's been developing after August/2010. If this marks a new downtrend or is just a minor correction, only time can tell.

Current support for this down leg is in the 27.30 price level, but I'm not sure if it works, because there are lots os still openned gaps.


Best to your trading,
JAPO.

Silver recap

Good night,

First of all let me wish you all a great new year, plenty of health and, hopefully, wealth as well.

Even though I have no clear idea about the fundamentals (if any) driving the current silver market, let me show you the monthly SLV chart and do some technical analysis on it:

This chart provides us a long term watch over silver. The first thing it comes to my eyes is the long term over-bought state of silver. RSI is sitting at over 95, the stochastic oscillator is also above 90. There's still no divergence in the indicators which is why this is a very strong move. Only volume diminished a little bit in December, but this is quite normal.

This condition arose in sequence of the current strong  uptrend that started back in August/2010 aroud the 18.0 level. It has been 4 months and 70% valuation on silver price since then, making us all plenty of joy.

Silver ended 2010 making a new year high (still not a new all time high, but approaching...) at 30.25 (SLV price - more or less 31 in actual silver price).

Let's see what 2011 will bring to us that are trading this market.
Nice trades!

New SLV high

Good night

Silver hit today a new year high at 30.08 (SLV value). This shows that a very strong uptrend is underway, in spite of the close in red at 29.76. Let's "look at the trailer":

Trend follower trigger is at 29.18, so be careful. MACD turned into positive ground today and this is an important sign. I just don't like the close below the upper bollinger band line. Short term momentum is also a little bit overbought.

You have a nice 2011!

Keep tracking it

Hi,

It's almost the end of 2010 and Silver is hot...very hot. The last short term bull move is being developed after yesterday's push up.

Technicals are pointing up and MACD is almost in positive territory. I consider this event to be very important for the next few days. It may mark a healthy bull move if goes positive; if not, it will be a failed one.

Nevertheless, I'm relying mostly on my trend following model:

The current stop trigger is at 28.58. Keep this value close to you and use it to profit with it.

Freakin' bubble

Silver is starting to look like a freakin' bubble.

See for yourself the chart that doubled since February/2010:

I believe this uptrend is about to give up and correct during some time. Tomorrow may mark the next top for silver, although I don't see clear negative divergences, neither exhaustion (but still in overbought zone).

Maybe it's time to start thinking on collect from this market, before going short (with careful!).

Trend follower in sell mode

This is trend following

The daily trend follower is flying high and the treshold value rose last friday to 25.04, so keep it close to you, 'cause a correction may be coming. Don't forget this rule: cut your losses (in this case, protect your profits)!

Have a nice trading week.

Feels good to have a trend follower

Trend following on silver means happiness :)

The SLV ETF has risen another 9.65% after the last buy trigger from last week. And this was after rising 29% after the 24th's August buy signal.

Now, the trend follower is at 24.40, so keep this number in mind, just in case...

Time to buy silver again!

Hi,

SLV closed today at 29.43 and triggered a new buy signal. The new sell trigger is positioned at 22.60.

Technically speaking, the SLV chart isn't yet so good as the trend follower points. I see the stochastic near a buy cross, so care must be taken. The RSI shows no negative divergence, which is a very good thing. The MACD has also inverted its course and is now rising again.

Tomorrow will be an important day in order to see if the uptrend is back again.

Take care,
JAPO.

A glimpse on SLV

SLV (silver) is currently trading in a correction mood. The prices are sitting at the midle line of the standard bollinger band and, for me, this can act as a nice support fot the correction. If it doesn't, then it will probably drop to the lower line of that bollinger band.

The trend follower is now at 23,34. You know the drill...a daily close above this value is a BUY trigger.

Here is the picture:

The weekly chart is showing some will to correct more, but let's wait first for the next week's close.


Take care,
JAPO.

And finally...a SELL trigger

Today silver dropped so much that triggered a sell signal on my trend follower. Now, the new buy trigger is set at the 23.88 level.

For now, this is the so awaited correction in silver. I hope this is an healthy correction and that the uptrend will resume soon enough. We have two options here: the first is to believe that this is actually only a correction and, as such, keep the long position; the second one is to follow the system and actually sell SLV now...choose yours!

Now this is starting to look like a freakin' bubble!

New SLV high today at 24.06, closed at 24.03 and trend follower at 23.16. This is huge and ugly divergences are in the chart...I'm just sticking to my trend follower and you?

Be prepared for a major sell off in the next trading sessions....I told you so!

Silver looks unstoppable

Today a new all time high in  SLV @23.50.
My trend follower rose to the 22.60 level.

Take care, ´cause I don't believe this will continue so overbought and with negative divergences for much longer!

SLV chart values

Good night, these are the values to take into account right now:

.New SLV high today at 22.98
.Trend follower rose to 22.17, acting as a profit stop loss.

I'm also taking care with RSI negative divergence, MACD dropping and stochastic oscillator completely overbought!

Silver: Quick Update

Hi,

I'm writing you all just to say that our trend follower on SLV remains on buy&hold mode. Silver did an impressive day last friday, although not trading higher than last thursday.

22.01 is still the value to watch for a sell trigger.

Silver follow up

Hi,

Today silver started its so-awaited pullback. For me this is something like an A wave of an A-B-C correction.
My trend follower didn't triggered a new sell signal, but I bet tomorrow will be the day...22.01 is our value :) I don't believe it will me a major correction...just a minor one in this incredibly bullish wave structure.

Keep your eyes open!